Token measures against Russian propaganda Offering a reward for information on Rybar is unlikely to achieve much The US State Department, through its Reward for Justice program, is offering up to $10 million for information on Rybar, the company behind the eponymous pro-military Telegram channel. This is symbolic at best, irrelevant at worst. What is Rybar? Rybar is one of the most prominent Telegram channels providing news and analysis on Russian military affairs. It currently has more than...
15 days ago • 7 min read
This week, I've been super busy with client work, so I don't have any exciting new insights for you. But fear not: below, you'll find all the key developments from the last week-and-a-bit, and I should be back in your inbox next week with something new! Have a lovely weekend :) In the news 💣 Terrorism & insurgency Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that it had prevented a terrorist attack on an Interior Ministry building in Smolensk Oblast. According to the official account, a...
20 days ago • 4 min read
Russia issues get-out-of-jail-free card The slow erosion of the rule of law could undermine public faith in the state. Imagine a loved one brutally murdered. Imagine finding out that the murderer will not only not be punished for their crime, but will instead be sent away and offered the chance to become a hero. Imagine finding out that they’d done it all before. Would you have faith in the police that are supposed to protect you? Would you leave justice in their hands, knowing they were are...
29 days ago • 4 min read
Russia’s difficulties in replacing Wagner shouldn’t come as a surprise Antonio Giustozzi and David Lewis have released a new report reflecting on the legacy and trajectory of Russian private military company (PMC) Wagner since it's notorious "march of justice" in June 2023 and the death of its owner, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, in August of the same year. The report provides a good overview of key developments and reflects on the group's current trajectory. While I disagree on its characterisation of...
about 2 months ago • 7 min read
Developing a knowledge hub for Russian security professionals The world of sub-state security in Russia is reasonably quiet at the moment. So I wanted to take advantage of the lull to explain what I’m currently developing — and why it will hopefully be of interest to you! The core idea is this: To create a knowledge hub for professionals working on sub-state security issues (i.e. terrorism & insurgency, private military companies (PMCs), and state-linked security services) in Russia. Before I...
about 2 months ago • 6 min read
The challenges of mapping Russian corporate actors Russian corporate structures can be incredibly complex, making it difficult to present a clear picture to readers. Visualisations can help – as can identifying the main story that the visualisations need to tell. This approach can be usefully extended to other actors, like private military companies (PMCs). Welcome back! I hope you managed to take a few days off this summer. In recent months, I have spent a great deal of time exploring...
2 months ago • 7 min read
🚔 New publication klaxon! A new publication has just hit the shelves that might be of interest to you! It's a book chapter entitled The Kadyrovtsy: A Private Army in Chechnya and Beyond. I contributed a small part to it, but the main work was done by Cerwyn Moore and Annamária Kiss. Here's the abstract: This chapter introduces some of the literature on auxiliary military forces, paramilitary groups, and private military forces to locate the kadyrovtsy, Chechen security forces loyal to the...
3 months ago • 3 min read
🚨 Does Russia have a North Caucasus policy right now? Both its economic and its security policy appear to be driven by inertia rather than ideas and focus. I was recently asked who drives federal policy towards the North Caucasus. And, to be honest, I don't think I gave a very good answer. On the one hand, decision-making processes are opaque, meaning it can sometimes be a challenge to identify those involved in them. On the other hand, while it is possible to pick out numerous individuals...
3 months ago • 5 min read
The main stories this week 💣 Why is the North Caucasus perpetually unstable? Russia’s failure to address legitimate grievances leaves it reliant on force 🪖 Russian PMCs may not exist now. But that doesn’t mean they never did 🪖 Sources report substantial African Corps losses in Mali 💣 Why is the North Caucasus perpetually unstable? Russia’s failure to address legitimate grievances leaves it reliant on force I recently read Frank Ledwidge’s excellent book, Rebel Law: Insurgents, Courts and...
3 months ago • 7 min read