Hello! I hope your week is going splendidly! I'm dropping in to your inbox today to explain some of the changes to the newsletter that I am implementing, starting…this week. I have been thinking a lot about the newsletter’s goals and what people appear to find valuable. As a result, I’ll be making some changes to content and structure that I hope will lead to something you find even more valuable 🤞. The TL;DR version The thematic focus on Russian security issues will be the same, but the type...
5 days ago • 2 min read
The costs of the war in Ukraine for the North Caucasus Russian investigative media outlet Mediazona have published their latest dataset on Russia’s losses in its war on Ukraine. The headline figure is that they have identified 95,300 soldiers killed, including foreigners and volunteers. But what does the data say about the costs of the war for the North Caucasus? First, let’s look at the geographical distribution: Stavropol leads the way with 1,480 casualties, slightly ahead of Dagestan...
9 days ago • 8 min read
Prediction is a fool’s game. Try scenario planning instead. Policy makers often want to know what will happen. The problem: even experts aren’t very good at guessing. People can be right for the wrong reasons, and wrong for the right ones. They can be either the proverbial stopped clock or suffer the fate of Cassandra. There is a lot of analytical shooting-from-the-hip out there, and plenty of people offer pretty awful predictions without any sort of mea culpa when they don't come true (I...
11 days ago • 4 min read
The North Caucasus is at risk of going dark Finding out what is happening in the North Caucasus has long been a challenge. Western interest in the region has declined sharply since the Chechen wars of the 1990s and 2000s. As a result, English-language media coverage is typically limited outside of major events, like a major terrorist attack. The Russian-language domain is better, but not by much. Most federal media outlets no longer employ correspondents devoted to the region, and they tend...
16 days ago • 6 min read
Russia subtly shifts from Syria to Sudan Sudan’s Foreign Minister Ali al-Sharif has reported that his country has reached an agreement on a Russian naval base in the country, following talks in Moscow with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. Al-Sharif was in Moscow for what Russia called a “working visit,” dedicated to “resolving the ongoing military and political crisis in that country.” The talks over the base resurrected an agreement originally reached in 2020, but placed under review...
23 days ago • 6 min read
England’s legal regulator decides basic due diligence is optional in Wagner founder case The Solicitor Regulation Authority generously decided that the law firm representing Wagner owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin could not have known that Prigozhin was lying when he sued open-source investigator Eliot Higgins for linking him to Wagner. In late 2021, Prigozhin hired Discreet Law, a London-based firm, to sue Eliot Higgins, an open-source investigator who founded Bellingcat, for linking him to the...
about 1 month ago • 5 min read
Ratibor leads rebranded Wagner...or Wagner rebranding 360.ru, a media outlet run by the Moscow Oblast authorities, published a 40-minute interview with five former Wagner fighters who are now members of a group calling itself “Wagner Legion Istra” (Legion Vagnera Istra). Undoubtedly the most famous person is the group’s commander, Aleksandr Kuznetsov (Ratibor) – probably the most highly regarded surviving Wagner commander. The other four are mentioned by 360.ru only by their call signs;...
3 months ago • 6 min read
🚔 Chechnya plans yet-another Defence Ministry regiment 🚔 Chechen Prime Minister Magomed Daudov revealed that the republic is in the process of forming a new unit within the Defence ministry, and that it will be manned by 2,000 fighters. Daudov’s comments came during Chechen Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s annual direct line — a local imitation of one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regular televised talkfests. Kadyrov wears his best outfit for his annual broadcast. Daudov was providing a year-end...
3 months ago • 6 min read
🪖 CAR murder prompts trucker protests against Wagner🪖 Cameroonian truckers working in the Central African Republic (CAR) have gone on strike over the murder of a colleague — which they have blamed on the Wagner Group. The incident demonstrates the problem of accountability regarding private military companies (PMCs). The murder took place in Bogoin, on the road to Bangui, and the truckers have labelled it an “assassination.” In response, they have refused to continue working in CAR, parking...
3 months ago • 6 min read