Good morning!
I thought I would drop in to your inbox this morning with a few quick thoughts on last night's attack in Moscow. It's obviously a developing story, but there are a few things that are already worth noting.
What happened?
On Friday 22 March 2022, Russia suffered its largest terrorist attack in many years. The rock group PikNik was due to perform at the Crocus City Hall concert venue in Moscow’s northwestern suburbs when armed gunmen arrived and opened fire on people. The authorities have reported that at least 60 people were killed and more than 100 injured in the attack. The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack via its Amaq news agency.
Similarities and differences with Nord Ost
The attack had obvious echoes of the Nord Ost/Dubrovka theatre siege in 2002, when a large group of attackers held hundreds of people hostage and, by the end of the event, more than 100 people were killed and hundreds injured. Any attack of this nature naturally prompts questions about the preparedness and intel of the security services — particularly given the heightened security situation that results from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Yet the differences between the cases are as telling as the similarities. The event was not on the scale of Nord Ost, which was a multi-day event involving a much larger number of attackers (how many has always been disputed, but the FSB have reported the detention of 11 people in connection with the latest attack, four of which are supposedly the immediate perpetrators). Nord Ost was also linked to a faction of the Chechen insurgency, and that particular threat has diminished considerably in recent years: There has not been an organised insurgency with a recognised leadership in the region since late 2017, and most jihadist attacks since then have been conducted by isolated groups pledging allegiance to a broader cause and often relying on fairly rudimentary weapons.
IS claim reduces scope for Russian authorities to exploit attack
In the last two years, the Russian security services have linked foiled and actual attacks to Ukraine as often as they have to jihadist actors. Unsurprisingly, as the attack was unfolding, many eyes turned towards Ukraine. Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak was swift to deny Ukraine’s involvement. US National Security Adviser John Kirby stated that the US had no information to implicate Ukraine. The Russian Volunteer Corp and the Free Russia Legion, who both fight with Ukraine and seek the overthrow of the current Russian regime, likewise denied involvement. The Economist cited an anonymous “high-level intelligence source” in Ukraine who voiced fears Russia would exploit the attack to blame Ukraine.
Fears that Russia would exploit the attack for political advantage are understandable. Dmitriy Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council whose personal journey has taken him from apparent liberal to an almost pantomime villain, was among a number of Russian officials to point the finger in that direction. The FSB have already alleged that the attackers had links to Ukraine and planned to cross the Ukrainian border after the attack.
Arguably, however, the claim by IS has reduced Russia’s scope to gain a political advantage from the attack. If Russia hopes to use uncertainty over the identity of the perpetrators to drive a wedge between Ukraine and its Western supporters, the IS claim makes that more difficult. To put it simply, those Western supporters may respond more skeptically to Russia's claims than they might otherwise have done had that claim not existed.
Not, of course, that any of that means Russia won’t try to exploit the attack.
What next?
I hadn't planned to publish a newsletter this Tuesday. But then I hadn't planned to write this newsletter on a Saturday either! But at some point I will publish a roundup of all the key information about the attack -- something that can serve as a reference resource in future.
Otherwise, have a nice weekend!
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