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My newsletter provides analysis and insights on terrorism & insurgency, private military companies, and state-linked security services in Russia. I provide research on Russia and academic editing services.
Welcome to the very first issue of Tracing Patterns, the newsletter that takes a particular story from the world of security and unpacks it — examining the relationships of those involved, analysing the underlying trends, exploring the broader context, and explaining the meaning of it all. In case you missed the announcement on Wednesday, this is what will be replacing Threat Dissection/Threat Monitor, in an effort to bring even more value to your inbox! This week, I’ll be focusing on the...
The costs of the war in Ukraine for the North Caucasus Russian investigative media outlet Mediazona have published their latest dataset on Russia’s losses in its war on Ukraine. The headline figure is that they have identified 95,300 soldiers killed, including foreigners and volunteers. But what does the data say about the costs of the war for the North Caucasus? First, let’s look at the geographical distribution: Stavropol leads the way with 1,480 casualties, slightly ahead of Dagestan...
Prediction is a fool’s game. Try scenario planning instead. Policy makers often want to know what will happen. The problem: even experts aren’t very good at guessing. People can be right for the wrong reasons, and wrong for the right ones. They can be either the proverbial stopped clock or suffer the fate of Cassandra. There is a lot of analytical shooting-from-the-hip out there, and plenty of people offer pretty awful predictions without any sort of mea culpa when they don't come true (I...