Russia issues get-out-of-jail-free card
The slow erosion of the rule of law could undermine public faith in the state.
Imagine a loved one brutally murdered.
Imagine finding out that the murderer will not only not be punished for their crime, but will instead be sent away and offered the chance to become a hero.
Imagine finding out that they’d done it all before.
Would you have faith in the police that are supposed to protect you? Would you leave justice in their hands, knowing they were are powerless and indifferent? Would you support the politicians who allowed this to happen?
That is the situation that Russians who are victims of crimes are increasingly faced with.
Since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, there has been a slow erosion of certain key aspects of the law.
First, there were pardons for those convicted — typically of the most violent crimes — so that they could join private military company (PMC) Wagner on the frontlines.
Then came the routine acceptance by courts of participation in the war on Ukraine as a mitigating circumstance in sentencing for subsequent crimes. Including for those who were pardoned and then returned to their old homes to carry out new crimes. Plus, quite often, a chance to return to the frontlines through another pardon.
Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed into law amendments that allow those facing criminal charges to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defence and go to fight instead of going to court.
The law offers a kind of get-out-of-jail free card, exempting suspects from criminal liability and providing a fast-track from detention centres to combat units.
For the guilty, it means no formal acknowledgement of their crimes, no record of a conviction subsequently quashed.
For the innocent, it will arguably make it easier to pressure people to join the military, rather than spend months in detention (think of the way that the perverse incentives of the US plea-bargain system lead innocent people to plead guilty as a starting point).
For the victims of crime and their families, it means that, even if the person who brutally murdered your loved one is found, there is no guarantee that they will face punishment.
To be clear, there will be no immediate consequences for this. Russia will not collapse. Civil war will not erupt. People will not head to the streets to protests en masse.
Yet it is easy to imagine that this will have a long-term corrosive effect on people’s confidence in the rule of law and the state.
Although people may be cynical, both of these do exist to a degree. Prominent legal scholar Kathryn Hendley argues that Russia has a dual legal system: where elite interests are involved, those interests take precedence over the law but, where elite interests are absent, the letter of the law actually matters. In the latter case, people have at least some expectation that crimes will be investigated and punished.
It is these expectations that will increasingly not be met. And it is this kind of situation that – for reasons of psychology – is more likely to cut through media narratives and undermine support for the authorities than bodies arriving home. This, in turn, will slowly erode people's confidence in the system.
We cannot reliably predict all of the social consequences of the war in Ukraine. We do not have an accurate measure of how the war has affected recidivism rates and levels of brutality among those who return from fighting.
But it seems reasonable to presume that the war Russia has started will have enduring social consequences, and that it will take years to recover from them.
In the news
💣 Terrorism & insurgency
The Second Western District Military Court has sentenced Daniil Senko, a resident of Nizhniy Novgorod, to 12 years in prison on treason and terrorism charges. The basis of the case against Senko is not known.
Russia will soon remove the Taliban from its list of designated terrorist organisations. Zamir Kabulov, presidential special representative for Afghanistan, claimed the decision had already been taken at the highest level, but the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Federal Security Service (FSB) are working out the legal technicalities. Russia has long maintained relations with the Taliban despite the designation, meaning the change has more symbolic than practical significance. Nevertheless, FSB Director Aleksandr Bortnikov has expressed the hope that the move will facilitate efforts to combat the Islamic State and its Wilayah Khorasan branch.
Chechen social media accounts reported that unknown people had attacked a police post in Gudermes, Chechnya on 4 October, wounding one. According to the reports, a grenade exploded near the police post. Over the next couple of days, the security services carried out raids as they searched for the perpetrators, and they apparently offered a reward for information.
Alikhan Ozdoyev, an Ingushetian native extradited from Egypt on 2 October, has been detained by the security services on suspicion of providing food and medication to a man suspected of carrying out an attack on the security services.
🪖 Private military companies (PMCs)
The trial of six people accused of ties to the Wagner group has begun in London. The men, aged between 19 and 61, are accused of a March 2024 arson attack on a building belonging to a Ukrainian businessman. Prosecutors claim that Wagner orchestrated the attack. Five of the six men are being prosecuted under national security legislation.
A resident of Novosibirsk who was severely beaten by a former Wagner fighter died while in a coma. The woman reportedly became involved in an argument with the fighter, who beat her with a bottle. The Wagnerite had earlier served time for assault, before being released to fight in Ukraine.
🚔 State-linked security services
Two men dressed in military uniforms robbed a mobile phone shop in Kursk Oblast. They subsequently portrayed themselves as members of the Spetsnaz Akhmat “volunteer” unit and attempted to trade the stolen goods before being detained. An advisor to the Kursk Oblast governor has called for the men to be tried for looting, while Spetsnaz Akhmat commander Apty Alaudinov characterised it as an attempt to discredit the unit.