The costs of the war in Ukraine for the North Caucasus
Russian investigative media outlet Mediazona have published their latest dataset on Russia’s losses in its war on Ukraine. The headline figure is that they have identified 95,300 soldiers killed, including foreigners and volunteers. But what does the data say about the costs of the war for the North Caucasus?
First, let’s look at the geographical distribution: Stavropol leads the way with 1,480 casualties, slightly ahead of Dagestan (1,320). Then come North Ossetia (712), Chechnya (312), Kabardino-Balkaria (241), Karachayevo-Cherkessia (180), and Ingushetia (123). In total, the North Caucasus contributed 4,368 casualties, or 4.58% of the total.
These figures are not necessarily what you would expect if losses were evenly distributed and the population of each federal subject is taken into account — as the following table shows. North Ossetia is clearly suffering disproportionate losses when compared to Chechnya, Ingushetia, or Kabardino-Balkaria, and Stavropol Kray should be behind slightly larger Dagestan. The same distortions are seen when we look at just the male population — something that makes sense, given that the overwhelming majority of casualties are male and the gender divide varies (according to the 2020 census).
The national averages, by the way, are 6.47 losses per 10,000 people and 13.93 per 10,000 males. Whichever way you calculate it, it’s been a very bad war for North Ossetia, and a relatively good one for Chechnya and Ingushetia (relatively bearing a heavy load here).
Second, we can see from the data how the picture has changed since the early days of the war. In 2022, there was a lot of debate in the region about the social costs of the war. Dagestan, in particular, witnessed protests against mobilisation, while Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov argued the republic was already doing more than its fair share. These debates have died down a lot since then, and we can see why: Stavropol suffered 29% of all its losses in 2022, whereas Dagestan experienced 38% and Chechnya a shocking 64%. The North Caucasian republics, in other words, were bearing a higher burden of the war in 2022 compared to the last few years. As a whole, the region contributed 8.6% of Russia’s total casualties in 2022, but only 3.28% for the period since then. My suspicion is that — as time has passed and the Russian war effort has become more coordinated — there has been an effort to shift the costs of the war away from the areas with greater protest potential, and that has worked to the advantage of the North Caucasus.
Third, we can think about what the data doesn’t show. Mediazona only counts people it can identify: Therefore, it estimates 165,000 military deaths overall. In other words, it thinks it has document less than 60% of the total. The overall war figures are higher than the individual years added up because in about 30% of cases they are confident that someone died, but not when it happened. There are good reasons for thinking that undercounting is much worse for the region, and Chechnya in particular. Chechnya, after all, has a much more repressive environment when the rest of Russia, and there has been a concerted regime effort to conceal losses to avoid a public backlash.
None of this data is perfect, but it does show the value of painstakingly collecting information scattered across the internet into systematic datasets. Which is good, because that’s what I spend a lot of time doing!
Elsewhere in the world of Russian security
💣 Terrorism & insurgency 💣
Armed resistance in occupied Kherson Oblast: Russia’s Southern District Military Court sentenced Kherson Oblast resident Yuriy Prasolov to 10 years in prison for planning a terrorist attack and illegal possession of firearms and explosives. According to prosecutors, in August 2023 Prasolov discovered a bag with a grenade and 370 cartridges and decided to blow up an administrative building in the town of Tavriysk. In February 2024, he started planning his attack but was detained.
Terrorism and sabotage under trial across Russia: Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) reported that eight Russian citizens from six different regions had been sentenced to between 16 and 22 years in prison on terrorism and sabotage charges. Only some of the cases had been previously reported. Those convicted were Dmitriy Demidchik (unknown), Aleksey Grigoryev (Orenburg Oblast), Maksim Moskalev (Kursk Oblast), Yegor Yermakov (Kemerovo Oblast), Viktoriya Golushko (Kemerovo Oblast), Ilya Fomichev (unknown), Eduard Gladkikh (Krasnodar Kray), and Sergey Chernookiy (Krasnoyarsk Kray).
Stavropol Kray prisoner earns extension to his stay behind bars: The Southern District Military Court sentenced Stavropol Kray resident Ivan Kokarev to 16 years in prison after finding him guilty of joining a terrorist organisation while already serving time for murder. According to investigators, Kokarev joined a banned organisation in December 2021 and planned to carry out further crimes in its name.
Islamic State attack on Israeli embassy in Berlin thwarted: An 18-year-old native of Chechnya has been arrested in Germany on charges of planning to attack the Israeli embassy in Berlin. The man, identified only as Akhmet I., was resident in Potsdam and detained at Berlin’s airport. He allegedly coordinated his actions with two other people who have already left Germany, and he himself planned to flee to Istanbul after carrying out the attack.
Stavropol man accused of acquiring explosives: A Stavropol court arrested a local man on charges of buying components for an explosive device. Prosecutors allege the man planned to hand the components on to someone else so they could carry out a terrorist attack.
Plenty of bucks for your bang: The security services in Kabardino-Balkaria detained a Chegem resident on charges of transferring RUB 1.9 million to members of unspecified terrorist groups located abroad.
Chechen commander in Ukraine explains his motives: Mikhail Dudayev, a deputy commander with the Detached Special Purpose Battalion (OBON) — one of the Chechen units subordinate to the Ukrainian Armed Forces — gave an interview to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. He explained how he left his life in Norway, where he ran a logistics firm and worked as an interpreter, to fight in Ukraine immediately after Russia’s attack in February 2022. He portrays Russia’s war as a continuation of the same imperial conflict Russia waged against independent Chechnya. When he travelled to Ukraine via Spain and Poland, he met up with acquaintances — an illustration of the importance of personal networks in mobilisation patterns among Chechens. Similarly, in summer 2022, Dudayev joined OBON because the commander was an old friend. Dudayev refused to answer how many Chechens were currently fighting for Ukraine, but said his unit alone had more than the 200 that had been reported. He also said his unit had never seen, much less clashed with, the Chechen units fighting on Russia’s side. Dudayev portrays the Ukrainian population as tired and disillusioned, and mirrors that same attitude in his view of “big politics.”
Terrorism by numbers: Kavkaz Realii notes that 3,165 people were added to the list of designated terrorists and extremists in 2024 — more than double the figures recorded in the previous two years. Ukrainian military personnel and residents from the territories occupied by Russia contribute significantly to the increase. It is not necessary to be found guilty of a crime to be included in the list; the opening of a criminal case is sufficient.
Man accused of preparing terrorist attack in Stavropol Kray: The Interior Ministry reported on the arrest of a 20-year-old resident of Stavropol Kray accused of planning a terrorist attack. The ministry claimed that he had agreed to carry out the attack in return for money and had prepared an explosive mixture for use against communications infrastructure. The man’s name and when he was detained were not revealed.
At-Takir wal-Hijra adherents sentenced in Karachayevo-Cherkessia: Karachayevsk City Court sentenced 13 local residents for membership of the banned Islamist group At-Takfir wal-Hijra. The group purportedly started operating in January 2019 and stayed active until December 2023. Two leaders received sentences of three years two months plus subsequent restrictions. The other members received terms ranging from two years to three years one month. All of the accused reportedly confessed.
Rostov resident arrested for robbery and terrorism: The Interior Ministry have arrested a resident of Rostov-on-the-Don on charges of using an air gun to rob a micro-financing office of RUB 87,000 after it had refused him a loan of RUB 300,000. The suspect then set fire to a gas station and the gates of an administrative complex. The terrorism charges come despite the lack of any apparent political motive: The man was allegedly operating at the behest of a telephone fraudster, who convinced him that his personal data had been stolen and the only way of exposing the criminals was to do what he said.
FSB claim they prevented series of attacks in Stavropol: The FSB detained a native of Central Asia in Stavropol and claimed that he had been planning to carry out a series of terrorist attacks on security service facilities throughout Stavropol Kray. The authorities claim that he was a supporter of a Ukrainian group and had already acquired flammable materials for his attacks.
🪖 Private military companies (PMCs) 🪖
Recruiting for Africa in Tatarstan: A recruitment point for the Ministry of Defence’s African Corps has opened in Tatarstan. People are offered a monthly salary of up to 250,000 rubles and the same status as people who fight in Ukraine if they sign a one-year contract. African Corps is prioritising tank drivers, motorised infantrymen, drone operators, and female medics, as well as interpreters from French, Arabic, Farsi, and English.
🚔 State-linked security services 🚔
Khodakovskiy recognised for role helping Russia: Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order promoting Aleksandr Khodakovskiy, the deputy head of the Rosgvardia Main Directorate for the Donetsk People’s Republic, to the rank of police major general. Khodakovskiy is a former Berkut special forces commander who became one of the Ukrainian figures that allowed Russian to portray its military intervention in 2014 as a local initiative. He later commanded the Vostok battalion and became formally subordinate to Rosgvardia in March 2023.
Pro-Russian Chechen commander killed in Ukraine: Zelimkhan Batukayev, who used the call sign Shustryy and led his own unit within Spetsnaz Akhmat, was killed on 23 February. Spetsnaz Akhmat commander Apti Alaudinov claimed Batukayev had suffered a cerebral haemorrhage as a result of fighting for three days without sleep. Chechen opposition channel NIYSO offered the more plausible explanation that he had died of a drug overdose while on leave back home in Chechnya.
🚨 Everything else 🚨
Chechen Prime Minister seeks territorial expansion: Chechen Prime Minister Magomed Daudov used the 81st anniversary commemorations of the Stalin-era deportation of the Chechen and Ingush to reassert Chechnya’s intention to reclaim Aukhovskiy Rayon from neighbouring Dagestan. Chechnya has repeatedly clashed with both Dagestan and Ingushetia over its territorial goals.
Lady Macbeth exits stage left: Ayshat Kadyrova, the daughter of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrova, has announced that she is quitting as Chechen deputy prime minister, a role she has occupied since October 2023. She claims its more suited to a “strong man”. Ayshat is rumoured to exercise considerable influence within the Kadyrov regime; there’s a reasonable chance that by “strong man” she means “one of Ramzan’s idiot sons”.
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