Token measures against Russian propaganda
Offering a reward for information on Rybar is unlikely to achieve much
The US State Department, through its Reward for Justice program, is offering up to $10 million for information on Rybar, the company behind the eponymous pro-military Telegram channel. This is symbolic at best, irrelevant at worst.
What is Rybar?
Rybar is one of the most prominent Telegram channels providing news and analysis on Russian military affairs. It currently has more than 1.3 million subscribers, with most of its audience growth coming after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The channel was founded in 2018. Initially, it focused on conflict and politics in the Middle East, but switched to making Ukraine its primary focus. It aspires to balance and neutrality in its own way: It is undoubtedly pro-Russian, but it tries to present its analysis as even-handed and fact-based, and it has been critical of how the Russian Ministry of Defence has waged its war.
Coverage by Western media outlets and think tanks of its reporting have undoubtedly boosted its profile. An investigation by The Bell in November 2022 noted that it is frequently cited by outlets like CNN and is heavily relied on by the likes of the Institute for the Study of War.
Who is behind Rybar?
Two men played a key role in growing the channel. Mikhail Zvinchuk, an Arabic-speaking former translator with the Ministry of Defence who hails from Vladivostok, created it. He partnered with Denis Shchukin, another former translator who grew up in Donetsk, lived in Moscow, and has been implicated in cyber crime offences.
The Bell’s investigation found that, by November 2022, the channel had grown to 10 employees. The State Department’s statement identified nine employees, suggesting the size of the team is broadly similar today.
The State Department’s offer of a reward claims that the channel was previously funded by former Wagner owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin, who built up various media channels to promote his narratives. Now, according to the State Department, it is defence conglomerate Rostec that is picking up the tab.
Why the countermeasures are purely symbolic
The State Department alleges that the Rybar company that is behind the Telegram channel is seeking to interfere in US elections by sowing discord and promoting partisan narratives. It identifies several social media channels that Rybar supposedly manages for this purpose. It is offering its reward for any information on the company, its activities, or the people behind it.
This, however, is more symbolic than practical.
First, there has already been some research into who is behind Rybar — most notably the aforementioned Bell investigation. That the State Department has named nine employees and identified Rostec funding suggests they are already in possession of pretty decent contemporary intelligence.
Second, there are easier ways to put a stop to this type of activity. For example, one of the channels supposedly used by Rybar to promote its narratives is on X. This is a US company subject — despite its owner’s best efforts to act to the contrary — to US law. If the US Government seriously wanted to tackle disinformation, it would be better off investing its time and money into improving accountability and regulation of social media companies.
Third, and most fundamentally, it grabs for a comfort blanket loved by the US, and liberals in particular. Since at least 2016, there have been countless efforts to blame Russia for disinformation and discord in the United States. Yet, for the most part, these efforts grossly exaggerate Russia’s influence. Russia is not capable of creating narratives or discord, only of inflating them. But the primary sources of social division, partisan divides, and racial tensions in the US are domestic, not foreign (the same, of course, is true of other countries where Russia promotes disinformation). Donald Trump couldn’t be more a product of US society if he tried. That’s not to say that Russia’s disinformation efforts are not important or worth attention. But take them out of the equation and you will still be left with the underlying phenomena. Ten million dollars won’t fix that.
What the tendency to blame Russia for these problems instead creates is incredible value-for-money for Russia’s efforts. An image emerges of Russia as all-powerful, able to shape events around the world through its dastardly deeds. That benefits Russia in a variety of different ways — which is surely not the State Department’s goal.
One thing I wonder though: How often do these rewards programs actually lead to anything? Does anyone ever manage to claim a bounty? I’m not aware of any research on the topic (though I haven’t looked). If you’ve seen any, let me know.
In the news
💣 Terrorism & insurgency
The Centre for Combatting Extremism, the Federal Security Service (FSB), and Rosgvardia conducted coordinated searches across Ingushetia, resulting in the detention of four people accused of storing ammunition and explosives. The raids took place in Nazran, Magas, and Ekazhevo and led to the seizure of more than 400 cartridges and 10kg of explosive materials.
The Southern District Military Court sentenced a resident of Rostov Oblast to 10 years for financing terrorism. According to investigators, in 2022 Ramil Yakub transferred money to his brother, who was a member of Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham. Terrorism-financing cases in Russia often centre around the transfer of money or other forms of support to relatives.
The Insider recorded a 30-minute interview with Mansur Samashinskiy, the deputy commander of the Sheikh Mansur Battalion that is fighting on the side of Ukraine (not to be confused with the pro-Kadyrov Sheikh Mansur Battalion, which is subordinate to the Russian Ministry of Defence). Mansur discusses the group’s experience and operations in Kursk Oblast and the Ukraine conflict more broadly. He says his unit does not seek out Kadyrov’s Akhmat units, who he claims are in any case far from the front lines; Spetsnaz Akhmat commander Apti Alaudinov is dismissed as a mere “blogger” and self-publicist. He also claims that some Akhmat fighters are not participating in the conflict voluntarily. Mansur rejects any suggestion of belonging to a “Russian” (rossiyskiy) national identity, instead claiming a Chechen/Ichkerian one. When asked about the group’s goals, he says they are not focused on Kadyrov or his system, portraying him as a Kremlin puppet; instead, he emphasises that they are defending themselves and Ukraine. Mansur also expresses his desire to return home, but only if Chechnya were free from the Russian empire.
Russia’s Interior Ministry has reported on the detention of two people suspected of involvement in the 10 October assassination attempt on former Ingushetian Deputy Prime Minister Sherip Alikhadzhiyev. Kommersant identified the men respectively as 45-year-old Bashir Omarkhodzhayev, a Chechen businessman who organised the attack, and 49-year-old Vasiliy Konovalov, an unemployed Ukrainian citizen who had previously been convicted in Ukraine and Russia and who perpetrated it. The motives for the attack, which cost RUB 20 million for the attack (RUB 500,000 up front), remain unknown.
The Investigative Committee in St Petersburg reported on the detention of a woman accused of organising a local cell of Citizens of the USSR, a movement that rejects the legitimacy of the Russian state.
🪖 Private military companies (PMCs)
The United States is not the only country concerned about propaganda promoted by PMCs. On 16 October, the trial of two men accused of promoting Wagner began in Poland. The two men, identified only as Alexei T. and Andrei G., were arrested in August 2024 on charges of distributing pro-Wagner leaflets and stickers in Warsaw and Krakow in return for up to $5,000. The distributed material included links to information on how to join Wagner.
A Russian court has sentenced in absentia a Georgian citizen, Ushangi Mamulashvili, to 13 years for fighting for Ukraine. Prosecutors accused Mamulashvili of mercenary activity, claiming he had trained with the Georgian National Legion and then gone to fight for pecuniary reward. He has been placed on the international wanted list.
In an article for Foreign Policy, Alessandro Arduino argues that late Wagner owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin has become a cult figure among Chinese military bloggers. He is apparently celebrated as a patriot (despite marching against his own government), a truth teller (despite a non-monogamous relationship with the truth), and a man of the people (despite accumulating vast wealth). Wagner, meanwhile, is seen as highly effective (despite major military setbacks) and a model for Chinese PMCs (did I mention the marching against their own state thing?).
In a policy brief for PONARS Eurasia, Margarita Zavadskaya and Jussi Lassila argue that post-Prigozhin PMCs are unlikely to be as effective as Wagner because the Kremlin is unwilling to tolerate the same level of autonomy that made it so. They elaborate on how Wagner originally allowed the Russian state to overcome its notorious bureaucratic inefficiencies, creating what they call a “pocket of effectiveness.” Now, however, loyalty and control is the Kremlin’s main priority.
🚔 State-linked security services
Four members from various Chechen Akhmat units were included in a recent prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, despite Spetsnaz Akhmat commander Apti Alaudinov pledging that no efforts would be made to rescue Chechens who allowed themselves to be captured and instead calling on them to commit suicide.
The Wall Street Journal has claimed that forces loyal to Chechen Ramzan are looting a steel plant in occupied Mariupol. According to the article, Kadyrov’s people are removing and selling equipment from the Illich Iron and Steel Works, exporting scrap metal for use in Russia’s automobile industry, and selling industrial gases to Russia’s space programme. The operation is being overseen by Kadyrov’s allies: Vakhit Geremeyev (brother of Federation Council Senator for Chechnya, Suleyman Geremeyev), his son, Valid Korchagin, and Alash Dadashov, with the LLC Illich MMK created as the corporate structure for managing the plant. Unfortunately, the original article is paywalled; if anyone has a copy and would be willing to share, that would be very nice!